1 Los ntawm "cov nqaij qaib" mus rau "khoom kub"
Pib txij xyoo 2020, ntau lub xeev tau tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv xav tau cov chaw nres tsheb loj photovoltaic kom tau nruab nrog lub zog cia chaw nres tsheb hauv ib feem. Txoj cai sib txawv ntawm qhov chaw mus rau qhov chaw, thiab lub peev xwm nruab qhov sib piv ntawm photovoltaic rau lub zog cia yog nyob nruab nrab ntawm 20: 1 thiab 5: 1, nrog rau qhov kawg yog feem ntau. Xyoo ntawd, lub peev xwm tshiab ntawm cov chaw nres tsheb photovoltaic nruab nrab yog kwv yees li 33GW, uas,ntawm tus nqi siab, coj mus rau 7GW ntawm lub zog cia fais fab chaw nres tsheb ua lag luam. Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo dhau los, lub peev xwm tsim tshiab ntawm lub zog cia chaw nres tsheb thoob ntiaj teb tsis tshaj 1GW.Photovoltaic fais fab chaw nres tsheb builders tau dumbfounded. Yav dhau los, lawv tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev muag hluav taws xob rau Lub Xeev Grid, tab sis nrog kev hloov kho tas li ntawm txoj cai pab nyiaj hauv tebchaws, cov qauv nyiaj tau los ntawm cov chaw siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic tau ua phem dua li yav dhau los, thiab tam sim no lawv yuav tsum tau nqis peev ntau. ntawm cov nyiaj nyob rau hauv thaum ntxov mus rau deploy lub zog cia fais fab chaw nres tsheb. Qhov "countermeasure" yog nrhiav qhov pheej yig tshaj lub zog cia hauv lub ntiaj teb. Photovoltaic fais fab chaw nres tsheb builders xam tias qhov kev siv tus nqi yuav tsis siab tom qab nws tsim, yog li nws yog txaus kom tau raws li tej yam specifications. Txawm hais tias kev xa khoom ntim ntawm lub zog cia cov tuam txhab tau nce, lawv txoj hauj lwm hauv tag nrho cov saw tsis siab. Tom qab xyoo dhau los ua "qhov txias-eyed", lub zog cia cov chaw nres tsheb tau hloov pauv lawv tus kheej mus rau hauv cov khoom kub rau cov khoom siv hluav taws xob photovoltaic hauv 2023. Cov kev hloov pauv tseem ceeb yog kev lag luam hluav taws xob thiab kev ua raws li cov cai ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob siv sij hawm. Hluav taws xob kuj tseem yuav muab faib ua "cov hluav taws xob zoo" thiab "tsis zoo hluav taws xob". Cov vaj huam sib luag photovoltaic tsim hluav taws xob ntau thaum tav su, yog li tus nqi hluav taws xob qis, thiab qhov hluav taws xob no yog "tsis muaj hluav taws xob". Qhov txawv yog qhov tseeb thaum yav tsaus ntuj thaum tsis muaj hnub ci. Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm lub chaw nres tsheb photovoltaic tsis yog nyob ntawm tus nqi ntawm lub zog tsim, tab sis tau dhau los ua tus nqi dynamic. Nyob rau lub sijhawm no, lub zog cia khoom siv hluav taws xob muaj nqi. Yog tias muaj hluav taws xob ntau thaum tav su, nws yuav muab tso rau hauv qhov chaw nres tsheb fais fab fais fab thiab muag rau hauv daim phiaj hluav taws xob thaum cov nqi hluav taws xob siab. Ntxiv mus, yog tias daim phiaj hluav taws xob tsis sau hluav taws xob, nws tuaj yeem khaws cia rau hauv lub zog cia lub zog ua ntej thiab tom qab ntawd muag rau cov neeg siv khoom koj tus kheej.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, tus nqi-ua tau zoo los ntawm kev nce qib ntawm lub zog khaws cia thev naus laus zis kuj tau ua kom zoo dua qub, thiab nws tsis yog "yuav luag". Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm ntau tus brokerages qhia tau hais tias tus nqi ntawm lub zog cia lithium roj teeb hlwb tau poob rau 0.4 yuan/wh, thiab lub kaw lus tuaj yeem ua haujlwm txuas ntxiv rau ntau dua 10 xyoo. Tus nqi ntawm "photovoltaic + lub zog cia" yog kwv yees li 0.3 yuan ib kilowatt-teev, thaum thee hluav taws xob yog 0.3 yuan rau 0.7 yuan. Hauv kev sib tw ntawm daim phiaj hluav taws xob, lub zog hluav taws xob photovoltaic tau dhau los ua tog nrog cov nqi zoo dua. Kuj tseem muaj ntau thiab ntau cov qauv nyiaj tau los nyob ib ncig ntawm lub zog cia fais fab chaw nres tsheb, thiab muaj kwv yees li plaub tus qauv txiaj ntsig: ncov-valley arbitrage, muaj peev xwm leasing, hluav taws xob pab them nqi thiab peev nyiaj them.
2 Ua kom pom tseeb ntawm lub zog cia
Yav dhau los, nws yog "photovoltaic rau txhua tus", thiab lub ru tsev ntawm feem ntau cov nroog thiab cov zos tau them nrog photovoltaic panels, tsim ib lub lag luam tshiab - faib photovoltaic, uas sib tw nrog cov tsoos centralized power stations. Tam sim no muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm "lub zog cia rau txhua tus". Lub logic ntawm ob yog tib yam. Ntev npaum li qhov pib nqis peev thiab kev tsim kho tuaj yeem ua tiav, yav tom ntej yuav yog "nyiaj tau yooj yim". Tus nqi xa rov qab ntawm cov hluav taws xob photovoltaic tau txo qis, thiab cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag qub, cov tswv lag luam, thiab cov tsim tawm tau poob sai sai rau hauv cov chaw nres tsheb fais fab me me. Cov tuam txhab photovoltaic zoo siab pom qhov no, vim hais tias pawg neeg no yog thawj zaug nws cov neeg siv khoom ncaj qha thiab tsis ncaj. "Lawv yog txhua tus neeg nyob hauv 'photovoltaic voj voog'." Kev lag luam ntim tau nce ntxiv, tab sis cov tuam txhab khaws cia hluav taws xob tseem ceeb suav nrog CATL thiab EVE Energy tsis tau them rau lub khw no. Kev ua lag luam no tawg dhau lawm, thiab kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob me me yog qhov nyuaj dua. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tseem muaj kev nyab xeeb rau theem no, thiab qee qhov haujlwm tseem xav tau kev xa tawm tshwj xeeb. Ua ntej kos npe rau txhua daim ntawv xaj, kev muag khoom yuav mus rau qhov project site rau kev tshawb nrhiav. Yog tias cov xwm txheej tsis zoo, lawv yuav tsis xa ncaj qha. Thaum lub sij hawm installation, kev taw qhia kev yuav tsum tau xa mus rau lub site. Tsawg kawg rau tam sim no, cov tuam txhab khaws cia hluav taws xob tsis muaj "kev pabcuam network" uas tuaj yeem npog tag nrho lub tebchaws. Qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb yog tias cov khoom siv hluav taws xob cia tsis yooj yim ua. Txawm hais tias nws tseem yog lub roj teeb, nws qhov kev ua tau zoo yog qhov qis dua rau cov roj teeb hluav taws xob hauv tsheb loj tshaj plaws, yog li nws tsis yooj yim nrhiav tus neeg muag khoom. Cov tuam txhab photovoltaic tsuas yog yuav tsum tau yuav cov roj teeb lub hlwb, sib sau ua ke rau hauv lub txee, thiab tom qab ntawd xa lawv mus rau qhov loj los ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas twb muaj lawm uas tau muab muag thiab cov kev pabcuam. Yog li ntawd, lub lag luam tshiab no tau "smashed" nyuaj rau cov tuam txhab photovoltaic. Lub zog cia roj teeb tuam txhab lag luam yeej tsis muaj sijhawm los saib xyuas lub khw no. Hauv qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws, cov neeg siv khoom zoo tshaj plaws yuav tsum yog cov tuam txhab tsheb tshiab lub zog, ua raws li cov chaw tsim hluav taws xob loj loj, thiab qhov thib peb yog lub khw muag khoom hluav taws xob txawv teb chaws. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob me me hauv tsev tsuas yog nyob rau qhov kawg nkaus xwb. Txawm hais tias lub xeev ntawm kev koom tes no zoo li me ntsis "tsis txaus ntseeg", nws yog qhov sib npaug rau cov tuam txhab photovoltaic siv cov khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab khaws cia lub zog noj kom muaj peev xwm ua lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab cia hluav taws xob. Tab sis ob tog tseem xav tau kev lag luam tshiab kom tau raws li kev loj hlob, yog li lawv tau xaiv "kev koom tes."
3 Tus tshiab loj loj ua ke nrog photovoltaic thiab lub zog cia?
Nyob rau hauv ntev, lub xeev ntawm kev koom tes no tseem yuav tawg, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog raws li "ambitions" ntawm photovoltaic tuam txhab uas muag yog loj hlob. Lub hom phiaj ntawm "photovoltaic cia kev koom ua ke" tau tham ntau xyoo, thiab nws tau dhau los ua qhov tseeb txij li xyoo tas los. Trina Solar thiab JinkoSolar tau txuas ntxiv mus rau hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob cia roj teeb.JinkoSolar txoj kev npaj yog 12GWh, thiab Trina Solar txoj kev npaj yog 25GWh, uas tuaj yeem ua tiav nws tus kheej txaus.Qhov no kuj yog txoj kev xav zoo ib yam ntawm cov tuam txhab photovoltaic. Thaum tus nqi davhlau ya nyob twg raug thawb mus rau tus nqi qis heev, kev koom ua ke yog siv los txo cov nqi thiab nce cov txiaj ntsig. Ib qho xwm txheej yog tias xyoo 2023, JinkoSolar yuav nqis peev hauv kev tsim kho ntawm 56GW photovoltaic tag nrho kev lag luam saw "super puag" hauv Shanxi. Ib lub hauv paus yog ntau tshaj li tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm cov tuam txhab tshwj xeeb feem ntau. Txawm hais tias kev lag luam hla, cov tuam txhab photovoltaic tsis ntseeg tias lawv tsis muaj peev xwm hloov pauv. Tus thawj coj ntawm lub tuam txhab photovoltaic ntiag tug hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm:"Kev tsim khoom tam sim no thiab kev tsim khoom hauv kev lag luam cia hluav taws xob yog qhov dav, thiab cov tuam txhab photovoltaic 'kev tsim khoom thiab kev tswj hwm kev tsim khoom muaj peev xwm zoo dua li cov tuam txhab khaws cia hluav taws xob."Tsis tas li ntawd, muaj kev pom zoo dav dav hauv kev lag luam cia lub zog uas tam sim no txoj hauv kev thev naus laus zis tseem ceeb - lithium hlau phosphate + graphite tau pib mus txog nws lub qab nthab, thiab nws xav tias theem kev lag luam tag nrho yuav ua raws li peb xyoos. Lub zog cia kev lag luam yog nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis sai thiab yuav maj mam mus rau lub qab nthab ntawm kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis.